12/04/2009 Mailbag

 An Expensive Hobby
Ok, so your class left me with chest pains. The idea of changing what I have done for so many years is terrifying but the truth of the matter is, it is not working the way it should. As many years as I have been in this game I should have more consistency. And yes, the problem is with me and the way I think I want to trade.
I have always believed trading successfully is a matter of finding a strategy that fits your personality. I love the speed of the game trading 15x per day on a small tick chart and I am so good at it I can execute like a machine. Problem is $$$ does not follow.
So many brokers tell me their most successful traders trade for a few ticks at a time and put on size. Tried that. In the ES my weeks look something like -4, +3, +.75, +9, -7, trading an average of 15x per day. Last week I went up 14 points one day and down 13 the very next. I have pulled 9 points out of a 7 point range day (I’m a genius) and lost 4 points on a 26 point range day (I’m a moron) It has made for an expensive hobby.
So I dumped the ES for now. One problem solved. Now I plan to throw out everything I thought I knew and trade what I learned (relearned) in your class. Put on a TF trade with a 1.5 stop and 5 point target and nothing else. If you prescribe a trail method for me I will follow it (and learn from you in the room) but for now, one stop one target. Hunt 2 moves per day. If I miss them, quit and try again tomorrow. If nothing else I will break my compulsive trade habit and I might make some larger gains along the way. Looking at the [signals] on the TF over the last month they all but leap off the page at me. I should be able to pick a few off.
It’s odd to listen to you these days. I have heard the same thing over and over for years but for the first time I am getting it on a philosophical level and it sounds different. I swear I think it’s a kind of maturity. I hear what you say and I feel like a kid being told the obvious. It’s embarrassing.

Fear of change is real but we are all here to make money and I ain’t making enough. Let’s see what the next chapter brings. <name withheld>

[several weeks later...]

(Fri 12/04)
Hey Austin,
I just booked 11.3 points profit on one short in the ERT.    Short at 603.2 closed at 591.9.  I would have never held through 3 lines of support without your help.  Thank you so much! Have a great weekend! <same withheld>

**

 In Control
Austin, as you know, ive been with you since the ctrl-bar seminar. Having followed your videos for years, finally took the plunge and bought the home study course. Too much information in there, pardon my saying so <grin> so I focused on ctrl-bar and [withheld] entry patterns alone. 

Result is +$5 in CL contracts and +30 handles in ESz this week total. Could have easily been more as usually the case. Incredible information you share. id keep it to myself, but whatever <grin>
thanks for all you do (G)

**

Amaized
Hey Austin,
ok… I switched from YM to corn [ZC] futures after our conversation on the phone. thanks for taking the time to put up with me <lol>

the beans are just a little too volatile for my taste. I been trading corn shooting for five cents profit using two cents stop. Win rate is about 80% which you may not believe, but its true. I wait for the first five-ten min of trading to pass, then look for the [withheld] setups or [withheld] patterns to show. Sometimes I’m done before noon and other times right at the close but boy do I love the short hours involved. count me in for midweek golf next year! <lol> Regards, (C)

Hit And (Just) Missed

[Excerpts From CMLive-hotComm Educational Room]
09:24:15 {austinp1} Great Morning II!
09:24:26 {austinp1} so much for the poor jobs report
09:25:15 {austinp1} potential for some very tradable markets today
09:25:33 {austinp1} when they whip-slap the non-farm news, day usually ends in a wedge
09:25:45 {austinp1} might be gap, go & trend higher all day
09:25:51 {austinp1} or big gap & fail reverse
09:25:56 {austinp1} time will play it out

09:37:33 {austinp1} idle, pending next sell signals
09:37:38 {austinp1} today or Monday, whenever
09:38:17 {austinp1} beans at 10:30am, of primary interest to me
09:41:34 {austinp1} simple trading plan for me today: short eminis on weakness, trade ZS either way
09:42:01 {austinp1} not a buyer of eminis by personal choice… if they ramp to all-time highs by the close, I’ll watch with disinterest
09:44:23 {austinp1} might gap & chop or gap & go all day
09:44:29 {austinp1} I’ll pass on either scenario
09:44:43 {austinp1} the only scenario of interest to me is a gap & fail… big move
09:45:01 {austinp1} I’m not trading emini chart signals: I am trading one possible scenario
09:45:55 {austinp1} or idle, those are my decisions

10:05:25 {austinp1} selling ES 1116
10:05:37 {austinp1} TF blew away, ignoring that
10:06:39 {austinp1} no fill 1116 – 1/2 in at 1115
10:06:51 {austinp1} adding second 1/2 higher or lower, doesnt matter which
10:07:44 {austinp1} pivot = gap fill on low side
10:15:24 {austinp1} below control bars = short
10:15:36 {austinp1} that’s about as far as I can tell
10:15:58 {austinp1} wedging fuzz-chop, otherwise
10:16:06 {austinp1} usual emini stuff, lately

10:26:27 {austinp1} dead wedges across the indexes
10:26:33 {austinp1} beans in three minutes

10:44:06 {austinp1} ES short 1/2 stop at 1115 par
10:44:38 {austinp1} TF slap-chopping higher

10:50:30 {EC} I’m waiting for AP to tell me, he is never wrong
10:50:40 {austinp1} short ZS 1047 > stop 1049
10:50:48 {austinp1} there’s my bet
10:53:59 {austinp1} ZS stop = par
10:56:39 {austinp1} selling ES 1112
10:57:09 {Lh} 40 or 37
10:57:41 {austinp1} ZS projects to 36 and then 32
10:58:10 {Lh} kill shot
10:58:16 {austinp1} not there yet
10:59:31 {austinp1} stop 1039
11:00:25 {austinp1} out 1037
11:00:39 {austinp1} +10 cents = +10 index points ES
11:01:09 {Lh} done for day – c ya
11:01:16 {austinp1} just over nine minute’s worth of stress-free trading <huge grin>
11:01:40 {austinp1} ES short 1112.00 > stop 1112.00 par
11:01:52 {austinp1} letting that one ride for distance, or die at par
11:02:52 {austinp1} ZS still drilling, could have held out for +$600 per at the low targets
11:03:06 {austinp1} figured +$500 per on a single turn would suffice
11:03:17 {Lh} Laughing out loud ! – pigs n all…
11:03:31 {austinp1} stepping out for some errands
11:03:52 {austinp1} see ya when I see ya

11:40:11 {austinp1} back…
11:40:28 {jf} so soon?
11:40:31 {austinp1} eminis are finally, finally bleeding lower
11:40:38 {austinp1} so soon, but not for long
11:41:04 {jf} looks like you might get to hold that ES short to yesterdays close
11:41:15 {austinp1} ES flattened my tight stop before the drop
11:41:24 {austinp1} 1112 in and out
11:42:21 {austinp1} TF gave pullback sells repeatedly near 605
11:43:02 {austinp1} 1/2 position short at 604.50
11:43:16 {austinp1} leaving it for the gap fill = pivot, which appears imminent
11:43:50 {austinp1} only mistakes I made today was choking ES stop at 1112 and also closing the 1115 ES 1/2 short at par
11:44:14 {austinp1} correct move was adding second 1/2 at 1112 for 1113.50 blended on full, and ride
11:44:31 {austinp1} she’d be at +12pts ES as I type
11:44:57 {austinp1} operator error :>P
11:45:37 {austinp1} non-farm Fridays are sometimes big gap & reverse days
11:46:55 {austinp1} out 1/2 position TF from 604.50 at 592.50
11:47:02 {austinp1} +6pts equivalent
11:47:36 {austinp1} just a matter of ceaseless, sideways chopping all week that kept me from stepping on everything
11:48:19 {austinp1} it looks like someone(s) said something that impacts USD heavily there
11:48:36 {austinp1} crude led the plunge, which is led by the USD
11:49:33 {AW} gold is getting whacked today
11:49:44 {austinp1} dollar up = everything else down
11:49:54 {austinp1} carry-trade unwind blip

11:52:05 {austinp1} well, I picked up +$500 per ZS / +$600 per TF and just missed +$600 per or better in ES
11:52:11 {austinp1} two out of three ain’t bad
11:52:22 {austinp1} full-size TF would have been +$1,200 per
11:52:57 {austinp1} trade-entry decisions were fine… trade management decisions are always the pivotal point
11:53:09 {austinp1} no one ever gets it all right
11:53:21 {austinp1} just gotta get some of them right :>)
11:53:55 {austinp1} in my mind I wanted ES (withheld)
11:54:10 {austinp1} that never quite happened… just so happened to be real crisp in TF this time around
11:54:19 {austinp1} next time, might be total opposite
11:57:32 {austinp1} in any event, that’s a wrap for my trading today
11:57:47 {austinp1} markets all did what they did, probable to do nothing else on a Friday afternoon
11:58:01 {austinp1} I’ll leave the gun-slinging to those with more desire for such than me
11:58:35 {austinp1} in & out to the close, back in a bit

**

B- grade on the trade execution side this morning. Should have stepped on TF full-size (or doubled) and held ES with normal stops instead of choked. Chalk those personal trade-management mistakes up to a week-long dead tape with no range and no direction. I know better than to be lulled jaded… but we never end the continual battle of mind over matter.

My primary objective each day is to capture +$500 per contract in something… don’t care where or which symbol(s) alone or combined. So we got that part right.

week’s tally in soybeans (ZS) was:
Mon +5 cents
Tue +8 cents
Wed +15 cents
Thu -1 cent
Fri +10 cents
—————–
Total +37 cents cumulative = +37 points ES equivalent

Looking back thru years’ worth of chart data, I can see where averaging +50 cents to +100 cents ZS per month is entirely possible. Volatility and intrasday range in ZS has been much higher in the past than now… with right now running 2005 to 300% greater than ES comparative. Bigger ranges and swings = bigger profit potential. Simple physics, nothing else.

**

Lots to cover in the weekend video review. See you then :>)

Trade to Win

Markers Down

Weekly video discussion (16:42 min)

ES Is As Always

Blog hits continue to grow exponentially as traffic here increases each week. I’d expect that’s due to a combination of factors. Many blog efforts start & drop all the time. Probably a reflection of the turnover this profession experiences. Public message board traffic continues to wane. One of the bigger forums is offered for sale, another has seen site traffic drop significantly.

Perhaps the traffic growth here is merely an organic shift from what no longer exists or offers much substance. For whatever reason(s) I’m grateful you are here, and will do my best to make it worth your while for stopping in.

**

While I wait for the 7pm est start to our workshop discussion tonight, thought I’d take this time to answer a number of the same email questions in one fell swoop. Collectively that would be, what is wrong with trading the ES?

Blue arrows (hand-drawn) in charts above show where the trade entry points would be for today’s ES action in the manner which we operate. Needless to say, there is absolutely nothing wrong with any of that imo.

I personally have been trying to focus on no more than two symbols at a time: those two being TF and ZS. It gets to be a bit much for trying to short-term trade any more than that, at least for me. Swing trading for hours or days duration? Different story. But that’s not the mode we’re in right now.

As noted here recently, the TF has undergone significant price behavior changes. I see it myself, I hear from many other who wonder the same thing. In a nutshell, daily volume in TF is below the minimal 150K contract threshold where choppy movement turns smooth. Someone trading a single TF contract might not see much difference at all. But try to fill any amount of size and it becomes frustrating to nigh impossible as the tape whips around with program blasts.

What we have to work with right now are low volume, low volatility, range-bound markets. For a couple of sessions last week there was a tease with normal to high volume = volatility. Easy to rack up solid gains with decent trade size in normal market conditions.

What you see right here, right now is likely to be what you deal with thru the balance of December. You may not like that. You may not want to hear that. But the index markets do not care. They will dish out to you and me whatever they damn well please, and you will either eat it or go hungry. No third choice exists.

Last two weeks of August and the last two weeks of December are usually horrid for short-term trading. No reason in the world to expect any different from that seasonal tendency for 2009.

Meanwhile, back to the ES specifically. It trades the way it always does… decent. Some days it swings well, some terrificly, some not at all. ES is pretty steady that way. I personally have a preference for more expansive, dynamic tapes than that. ZS, CL and TF most certainly are. Problem is, trade execution is a big problem in TF while volume is low. Potential on a chart that does not translate into orders filled in & out means nothing. Maybe less than nothing.

I have expectations that the TF will return to trading normally in 2010. I have no qualms about dropping that, picking up ES and settling for fewer index points with more effort involved. Whatever will be will be. There are always too many markets and not enough time to devote attention towards for all of us. If one or more go dead, no need to miss a beat.

For me, the idea of a 10:30am thru 2:15pm EST workday has (by far) most appeal of all. Whatever comes secondary to that will be whatever earns merit best.

Trade To Win

EZ$ Money?

[Excerpts From CMLive-HotComm Educational Forum]
08:04:49 {austinp1} Great Morning!
08:05:20 {austinp1} premarket futures continued the no-range chop all thru last night
08:05:35 {austinp1} bodes well for a strong directional push inside of today
08:06:03 {austinp1} as usual during comatose dead market conditions, no consideration for premarket trades on my part
08:06:16 {austinp1} idle until 9:30am est at the very least

09:06:17 {Mk} Austin pls count me on the golf team to improve golf game
09:17:47 {austinp1} back… in the house
09:18:07 {austinp1} mark, that 10:30am ~ 2:15pm est workday has a lot of potential
09:18:51 {austinp1} fewest possible hours for greatest possible dollars = my kind of schedule
09:20:58 {jf} that would make me want to move back to the west coast 
09:22:18 {austinp1} I’m looking at properties (online) in Iowa, myself
09:25:09 {Mk} trading part of the yr from Iowa very doable
09:26:31 {Mk} just order a T1 for trading….
09:26:55 {jf} if beans and corn go into a slide i would not tell my neighbors in Iowa i made a killing day trading the futures to the short side if that happens 
09:27:18 {austinp1} lol @ jf
09:27:35 {austinp1} would they give me permission to hunt deer on their land then?
09:28:23 {austinp1} thinking of part-time trading from Iowa… during deer season :>P
09:28:35 {austinp1} land of the monster racks

09:31:20 {austinp1} letting TF rip the dome for a few minutes, before I do anything there
09:32:12 {JL} you would have to pay a state income tax in iowa.  
09:32:19 {austinp1} ES is a total wedge overnight
09:32:21 {JL} thats evil
09:32:33 {austinp1} they’d never know I was there, JL
09:32:47 {austinp1} then again, it cannot possibly be higher than NY state income tax
09:33:40 {austinp1} TF going ape-s(omething) off the bell, as usual
09:33:50 {austinp1} bots have killed that symbol
09:36:06 {austinp1} ES still inside the tight wedge from overnight
09:38:23 {austinp1} TF jacked to its R2 valued
09:40:39 {austinp1} all slap-slam here in that symbol
09:40:50 {austinp1} ES paralyzed
09:45:06 {austinp1} ES = paralyzed
09:47:28 {austinp1} good chance of gap fills today if they manage to break down for keeps
09:47:31 {LJh} weak bounce -
09:47:46 {austinp1} TF leading lower, after leading higher
09:50:41 {austinp1} impossible to hold a stop in any TF position
09:50:48 {austinp1} flat-out impossible
09:51:03 {austinp1} idle until 10:30am open for beans
09:53:47 {LJh} run to 600 in TF  or this is the reversal
09:55:14 {LJh} but there is a big lid at 95.6, which I wud expect a run to even if down day
09:58:49 {LJh} scuse – mean 96.5-96.7 – doh…
10:06:16 {LJh} there’s that lid. see what she does here
10:08:55 {AW} es at multi day top.  needs to break out and tf should run
10:10:23 {LJh} gonna see 600
10:10:38 {AW} yup
10:12:20 {jf} 1120 on ES prob too
10:14:07 {LJh} that one was pretty straightforward. [withheld] into a lid, then a magnet number. half position out and half in place for R3 at 603. banked 5 and tight stop now
10:15:49 {austinp1} back… and ready for beans
10:16:02 {austinp1} as for the TF…
10:16:09 {austinp1} I cannot even fill full positions
10:16:28 {austinp1} they rip the dome so hard in those blasts, had no chance to fill multiples on my end
10:16:36 {austinp1} and the outs are all slipped -2 ticks
10:16:51 {austinp1} illiquid, bot blast dominated
10:18:24 {austinp1} CL doing the sideways ugly thing again today
10:19:13 {jf} CL waiting for numbers in 10 min imho
10:19:28 {austinp1} it’ll be adventurous in oil later today
10:20:13 {jf} @ AP if you move to Iowa you will have to tell them you are a professional online poker player  <grin>
10:20:20 {austinp1} laugh
10:20:27 {austinp1} or long grains all the way
10:21:05 {jf} i am the guy who prvides liquidity so you can hedge will not be acceptable? 
10:21:13 {austinp1} even in the ER2 glory days, it took a little bit of chasing to fill size
10:21:24 {austinp1} but the TF is ridiculous for that
10:21:40 {austinp1} it rips thru 10, 15 and 20-tick blasts in micro-seconds
10:21:42 {austinp1} sideways
10:22:16 {austinp1} when the programs fire off now, it’s just thin air in between them
10:22:38 {austinp1} I had a two-lot slip -4 ticks last week on a news break
10:22:48 {austinp1} two contracts, -$40 out
10:22:51 {jf} if you trade TF need to enter in thin air period and look for next BOT to continue the trend
10:23:15 {austinp1} yes, all about trying to scale between blasts
10:23:30 {austinp1} but those sideways rips nail stops just before many of the blasts
10:23:33 {jf} not an easy way to trade
10:23:36 {austinp1} sucks
10:23:39 {austinp1} totally
10:27:16 {austinp1} CL is getting ready for its big event

10:37:38 {LJh} AP – thoughts on ZS
10:38:20 {austinp1} idle ZS for now
10:38:40 {austinp1} looking for it to make a move out of opening wedge
10:39:10 {austinp1} [withheld] patterns all the way in ZS… nothing but breakouts for me
10:39:15 {austinp1} momentum plays
10:41:25 {LJh} ZS kissed the open level on the retrace, so more confident if it heads higher. hopin heads lower
10:42:41 {austinp1} ZS is wedging, like everything else
10:43:32 {austinp1} ZS first 15min bar is a $450 doji
10:43:48 {austinp1} 9 cent
10:47:00 {austinp1} wedgapalooza today
10:47:05 {austinp1} everywhere I look
10:47:12 {jf} is this a holiday week???
10:47:19 {austinp1} you’d think
10:48:14 {austinp1} trading the ZS breaks, either way
10:55:25 {austinp1} short ZS 1055
10:55:28 {austinp1} stop 1058
10:55:41 {austinp1} stop 1057
10:56:22 {austinp1} stop 1056
10:56:28 {austinp1} leaving it there… -1 cent
10:56:46 {austinp1} should be good to go lower
10:57:49 {austinp1} ES in a dead-flat coil
10:57:58 {austinp1} TF, too
10:58:07 {austinp1} oil is slipping lower
10:58:10 {austinp1} pun intended
10:58:23 {AW} some little kid used a crayon on my oil charts
10:58:37 {austinp1} CL was like that yesterday, too
10:58:47 {austinp1} must be an end-year thing across all markets
10:58:57 {austinp1} everything has gotten mud-ugly, lately
10:59:14 {austinp1} ZS stop 1055.00 par and leaving it
10:59:39 {austinp1} at lows from two days ago
10:59:53 {austinp1} ZS really, really respects recent hi/lo values
11:00:10 {austinp1} if that breaks, +10 cents should be easy
11:01:11 {austinp1} ZS $10.50 zone has been very magnetic for awhile lately
11:02:54 {LJh} test here
11:03:23 {austinp1} you passed
11:04:01 {LJh} grins
11:04:42 {LJh} bye bye
11:05:02 {austinp1} ZS 1045 or lower and I’m good for the day
11:05:22 {LJh} that’s where I got my order in
11:05:59 {austinp1} ES gave breakdown signals at 1112 and 1110
11:06:08 {austinp1} TF at 598 or higher
11:06:18 {austinp1} CL rolled over first, others are following
11:08:19 {LJh} they gotta stick the landing here r we will see 45 n poss s2 at 42
11:08:36 {LJh} so much for the save
11:08:54 {C} I always wondered how high ES would trade when it went thru 1111–now I see
11:09:40 {austinp1} they’ve been waiting for that ## a long time now
11:09:46 {austinp1} major gap filled
11:10:01 {austinp1} notice the complete lack of chop in ZS
11:10:05 {austinp1} break & go
11:11:01 {LJh} done – chickened out on the 42
11:11:55 {austinp1} ZS out 46.00
11:12:06 {austinp1} +9 cents = +9pts ES equiv
11:12:20 {austinp1} hit 44.50 and popped faster than I could trail to 45.00
11:12:27 {LJh} I had my order in at 46 and then moved to 45 – it jumped it and took me out on 4 contracts cleanly
11:13:08 {austinp1} what’s not to love about that?
11:13:30 {LJh} lot like small caps that are liquid

11:13:57 {austinp1} grains are just clean markets
11:14:03 {austinp1} most commodities are
11:14:24 {austinp1} eminis are merely bot-slapped to death
11:16:12 {bc} LJh & AP what prompted you guys to use 45 as the early objective on the beans this morning ??
11:16:31 {austinp1} for me, just +$500 per contract
11:16:33 {austinp1} nothing else
11:17:53 {austinp1} I happen to be short the TF from 598 blended
11:18:27 {austinp1} but to get there, I drew down -3.5pts TF and also missed the upside burst
11:19:00 {austinp1} I find the ZS to be what ER2 once was: deliberate enough to fill size, rangy enough to offer excellent R/R
11:19:52 {austinp1} TF simply blast-slams all over the dome… even chasing orders more than I should tends to miss some entries on good moves, catches too many bad
11:20:47 {AW} ready, fire, aim trading at it’s finest
11:21:13 {bc} many thanks..
11:21:59 {austinp1} for me, ZS is simple: trade the breakouts aggressively, hunt for +$500 swings
11:22:09 {austinp1} exact-same approach for that as ever
11:22:18 {austinp1} difference is, it moves while eminis chop
11:22:36 {austinp1} no problem with me or methods, period: ALL problems currently lie with index markets
11:22:52 {austinp1} change markets, problems solved :>)

11:24:43 {austinp1} btw… I wholeheartedly encourage anyone & everyone to openly share ideas in this forum
11:24:59 {austinp1} it does not work when viewed as “austinp trade show”
11:25:04 {austinp1} waste of everyone’s time
11:25:38 {austinp1} I’ve known LJh for a long time… glad to have him here with us now
11:25:45 {LJh} yeah – but u r the man – learned that over many years
11:25:57 {austinp1} I’m just one guy, that’s all :>P
 
11:46:41 {austinp1} I see the TF popped me out for +3pts on a spike
11:46:48 {austinp1} held R2 support
11:47:06 {austinp1} same story, three days in a row: made all money in ZS, nothing anywhere else
11:48:23 {austinp1} needless to say, a majority of my trading focus until Jan comes will be inside ZS
11:48:33 {austinp1} dabbling with TF for the balance of Dec
11:48:48 {LJh} Interesting to see what ZS does in 1050 test. She is looking ripe for double dip throttle if doesn’t get some legs and on top of that support. still think should see 42 and 35 on an accelerated drop. wudn’t go long as a swing till she tested 35, which many are now looking at – self perpetuating…
11:50:25 {austinp1} for the ZS, sell signal on further breakdown below 1046
11:50:41 {austinp1} no buys unless it 1-2-3 upwards
11:52:38 {LJh} 100% agree – no joy in upside move until some real basing action put in place to walk over 50 and hold.
11:59:48 {austinp1} all markets move in unison today, all lull at same time
12:03:52 {austinp1} ZS breaking down from sell signals, everything else is stalled
12:04:48 {austinp1} short again from 1046.00 > stop 1045.00
12:05:00 {austinp1} worst-case is the +10 cents in two pieces
12:08:05 {LJh} thanks – that was as predictable as they come.
12:08:18 {austinp1} 11:50:25 {austinp1} for the ZS, sell signal on further breakdown below 1046
11:50:41 {austinp1} no buys unless it 1-2-3 upwards
12:08:33 {austinp1} it doesn’t get any clearer than those signals
12:09:09 {austinp1} buy-stop at ZS 1040.00 (+6 cents)
12:09:17 {austinp1} 1045 or 1040 is my out
12:09:22 {austinp1} whichever prints first
12:11:32 {LJh} guessing 37.5 and poss the 35 – purely based on bad taste of beans on long side – knife still hot
12:16:15 {austinp1} indexes act like they want to roll over and drop dead
12:18:11 {LJh} pucker time on ZS – stick and hold here or southbound train to next stop
12:18:24 {austinp1} oh, she’ll move
12:19:18 {LJh} punked again
12:19:33 {austinp1} out ZS 1040.00 for +6 cents
12:19:33 {LJh} double dip trip
12:19:54 {LJh} 37.75
12:20:05 {austinp1} +15 cents (+15 points ES equiv.) cumulative
12:20:45 {austinp1} wonder how many ES players out there today have +15pts in two turns booked solid?
12:21:04 {austinp1} I like grains
12:21:11 {austinp1} they’re electric
[end]

**

Everything is tradable to whatever various degrees. My personal preference is to trade that which offers the most profit potential in least amount of screen time necessary. That leaves max amount of free time left to live life & have fun… the very reason we decided to trade for a living in the first place.

Right? I thought so.

**

Our evening workshops event tonight and tomorrow will cover the usual tools which work for any markets, but we’ll spend time focused on examples of soybeans, corn, gold, crude oil and euro futures markets. Things with max movement and life, minimal bot-chop and churn.

see you there

Usual Setups

Great Morning!

Yesterday’s (and Monday’s) absolute no-range emini sessions are coiled for directional break. A day where price does nothing but twist, chop and wedge into tight channels has broken time & again this year the next day. Hard.

Odds are we see that pattern of behavior play out again today. Tomorrow morning may be active, but the afternoon stretch is probable to go sideways on waning volume ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll report. That too is a highly repeated price behavior. The Thursday preceding non-farm payroll Friday is active in the morning, dead in the afternoon.

Friday non-farm payroll sessions also have distinct, repeated patterns of action too. Reactions to the “news” release that whipsaw hard, usually lead to wedged-in regular session action. If the news reaction is muted or straightline directional, cash session to follow might be the same.

Whipsaw premarket non-farms usually lead to wedged cash sessions. Muted or directional non-farm reactions sometimes lead to expanded or directional cash sessions.

**

None of these little things are found in books or print. It’s the stuff that years of observations, seeing the same sessions dozens or hundreds of times unfold that gives a little insight on what usually happens. Anything can happen at any time. That much is sure. But certain sessions, weeks and months have distinct patterns of behavior.

Today is the most likely of the remaining three this week to be expansive and/or directional for index markets. We’ll see how it all unfolds when the opening bell rings.

Trade The Win

InGrained

Great Evening!

Same s(tory), different day. Eminis went nowhere, did nothing and chop-slopped all the way thru. You can expect this 4 days out of 5 (or more) from now until January 2nd, 2010. There’s what December 2009 in eminis will look like, with scant few exceptions.

**

ZS soybean futures traded thru a 26-cent (26pt ES) range or 300% greater price range than the ES managed to traverse.

Much more importantly, they actually swung thru several oscillations. If you know what to do with a chart like that one above, there was potential for +$1,000 per ZS contract with ease. I scratched out +8 cents from the middle swing, sandwiched between with another +8 cents long before and +10 cents short afterward into the close.

Admittedly I’m still learning the nuances of this symbol. Regrettably, I’m letting the mind pollution of emini incessant chop get in the way of seeing consistent ZS price swings. Carrying the brain damage from 2009 emini suckage into another market where such does not exist. THAT is by far the biggest (and only) adjustment to my ZS trading that needs be made.

I’m sure the emini index markets will come alive again in 2010. Maybe all year, maybe parts of it… no one really knows. I for one don’t really care. I can see my workdays focused from 10:30am est thru 2:15pm est, and then off to live life richer and happier from there.

Someone’s golf game is going to improve dramatically in 2010. Care to join me?

Trade To Win

Fizzling

Monday after Thanksgiving weekend, Year 2007:

The intraday chart of TF above shows ample opportunity for +5pt to +10pt profit trade swings. Pretty typical Monday after session.

**

Monday after Thanksgiving weekend, Year 2008:

Last year’s Monday-after session was impossible to fathom. It goes without saying that booking +20pts TF profit intraday still left one helluva lot unrealized behind.

**

Monday after Thanksgiving weekend, Year 2009:

When they finally got done ripping the ladder = dome from opening bell into the first half-hour thru 100% untradable fashion, the TF was left to wallow in a no-range chopsaw wedge. By the time I walked away around 2pm est, think it was a 9pt non-range mess.

**

Three years of charts from the identical session chronicle what used to be versus what is no more. I have no idea what has happened to TF in the past several weeks. Volume dropped, but the ripsaw bot-blasts are beyond tradable for too many stretches of time. Price will slam up and down thru a 20 or 30 tick sideways range far faster than the human eye can follow.

I’ve been in the Russell futures for five years now, and have never witnessed anything like what it’s been doing the past three – four weeks. When those algo-bots start fighting each other, price is just ripped to shreds.

Having personally traded thru all three sessions charted above, I can tell you that two of them we totally dominated… crushed like squirrels in the road. A third one ripped, slapped, chopped, popped and slopped from bell to bell. Can you tell which was what from looking at the charts above?

==

Soybeans wedged in somewhat choppy fashion today. ES was low-range but made some tradable swings. Crude oil swung thru some incredible swings like it so often does.

I sure hope the TF returns to some semblence of normalcy in what’s left here of 2009, or it will not make the cut of my active list in 2010.

Trade To Win

Sunday, Nov 29th Video Discussion

video link here (34 minutes)

11/27/09 Mailbag

From: F <f@cox.net>
Subject: Thanking you
To: austinp44@yahoo.com
Date: Wednesday, November 25, 2009, 10:33 AM

Dear Austin,

I have never fully expressed my thanks for all that you have given to me over the past year. You are an incredible storehouse of wisdom, and you are so generous in your many ways of disseminating it.

I am very grateful that I found you. I  am still absorbing some concepts – there is so much there to totally make one’s own – but I am increasingly grateful that you have provided me these tools and approaches. 
I hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving. You are certainly one of the things I am most thankful for as I look back on my year. [F]
 
**

From: R r@gmail.com
Subject: Top Shelf
To: austinp44@yahoo.com
Date: Friday, November 27, 2009, 12:14 PM
Austin,
I must say that your teachings on how to trade intraday are top shelf. Having joined you in late September and applying your tactics to euro and crude oil, I could not possibly be more pleased. Your explanation of the process on reading charts and trade-enter tactics are remarkable. I have turned around what was to-date a small loss year into what has become a modestly profitable one. I owe it all to you & yours. Thank you for all you offer! [R]

**

From: S s@verizon.net
Subject: ES Record
To: austinp44@yahoo.com
Date: Friday, November 27, 2009, 1:32 PM

Hey Austin,
I wasn’t going to trade today except for the overnight market breaks and your note in the blog about working today yourself. I saw the clean [withheld] pattern at [ES] 1084 pullback, took it an held. Was tempted to exit for a couple of pts and would have surely done so before signing up with your service. Now I watched the [withheld] and it showed no signal for sell at all, so rode the trade to 1094 and stopped out. +10pt with four contracts is my biggest trade ever (so far) and I just started trading more than two.

Just wanted to share my excitement with someone, wife thinks it great but she doesnt understand, I know you do <lol>

See you Monday [S]

===

Just add some volatility to the markets, and trading is a pretty good gig. There was money to be made in just about everything these past few days, take your pick. Eminis, currencies, oil, gold… all made sharp, big moves.

Grains did what they pretty much always do, nothing exceptional there but that market is only semi-correlated to the USD shenanigans.

If you know how to measure price and read charts correctly, any moving market can become a personal ATM machine. Like I’ve been saying for a couple of weeks now… expect more of the same come Monday, and perhaps most if not all of next week.

Best Trading Wishes